{"id":48321,"date":"2026-05-24T14:19:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-24T08:34:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/?p=48321"},"modified":"2026-05-24T14:22:02","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T08:37:02","slug":"bridging-forecasts-and-communities-scaling-up-anticipatory-action-in-nepal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/bridging-forecasts-and-communities-scaling-up-anticipatory-action-in-nepal\/","title":{"rendered":"Bridging Forecasts and Communities: Scaling up Anticipatory Action in Nepal"},"content":{"rendered":"
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-Pramod Adhikari<\/strong><\/p>\n

Previous year, I visited Phalelung Rural Municipality of Panchthar district in order to provide an orientation on Anticipatory Action (AA) to the local community influencers. Leaders from various faiths- priests, monks, pastors and gurus- were picked as influencers so that they could convince people better to be mobilized during disaster management.<\/p>\n

The participants were made aware on foundational principles of Anticipatory Action by linking the ideas to the swift and strategic practices and empowering them to cope with hazards. By equipping such trusted voices with timely information and practical frameworks, Nepal Red Cross aimed to enhance community readiness and reduce potential losses through early actions\u2014underscoring the vital role that informed local leadership plays in disaster risk reduction.<\/p>\n

In view of the participants ranging from Hindu priests who also practiced astrology to a Buddhist monk\u2014both familiar with traditional forms of prediction, the astrological prediction like high chance of heavy rainfall, subsequent flooding and preparedness in place were discussed, reflecting on practical steps they could take in advance to avoid potential losses.<\/p>\n

One key action the participants emphasized was the massive dissemination of warning messages\u2014ensuring that everyone in the community, especially vulnerable groups, is informed on time. They also discussed the importance of securing important belongings, preparing evacuation plans, identifying safe shelters, and alerting local authorities. It became a gateway for introducing the core idea of anticipatory action- acting before a disaster strikes, based on reliable forecasts.<\/p>\n

Connecting all these dots, the reference of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology was brought as scientific astrologer, for they issue data-driven forecasts, helping us prepare and take early actions before hazards turn into disasters.<\/p>\n

Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) has recently issued seasonal monsoon outlook, stating that this year\u2019s monsoon is expected to begin from June 13 and remain active until October 2 this year. The outlook further suggested a hotter and relatively drier monsoon than normal, but with some variability.<\/p>\n

Most parts of the country are expected to receive below-average rainfall, while both day and night temperatures are likely to remain above normal, increasing the chances of heat waves and water stress. At the same time, the monsoon may still bring occasional intense rainfalls, thereby posing further risks of floods and landslides. Overall, Nepal is likely to face a combination of heat stress, reduced precipitation and uneven weather patterns during this monsoon.<\/p>\n

Need of smarter, targeted preparedness<\/strong><\/p>\n

Experience has shown that even in years of weaker monsoon, localized extreme rainfall events can still trigger floods and landslides, often with significant impacts on vulnerable communities. Therefore, reduced overall precipitation does not equate to reduced risk; rather, it calls for smarter, more targeted preparedness strategies.<\/p>\n

In this context, the concept of AA becomes especially relevant. Anticipatory Action focuses on taking early, pre-planned measures based on forecasts and early warning signals before a disaster fully unfolds, reducing loss and damage. With Nepal\u2019s growing exposure to climate variability, shifting from reactive response to forecast-based early action is imperative. The availability of early warning information from the DHM and advisories from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) are other strong foundation for such proactive measures.<\/p>\n

NAA F for enabling environment<\/strong><\/p>\n

Importantly, recent approval of the National Anticipatory Action Framework (NAAF) has created an enabling environment for scaling up these efforts. Compared to previous years, investing in AA is now more convenient, structured and institutionally supported, for it allows both national and sub-national actors to act with greater clarity and coordination. The framework provides guidance on linking forecasts to predefined actions, financing mechanisms and roles of different stakeholders so that preparedness would be more systematic rather than ad hoc.<\/p>\n

At the local level, this further opens significant opportunities for municipalities. Local governments can now develop hazard-specific AA protocols, tailored to their unique risk profiles such as floods and heat wave in Tarai regions or landslides in hilly districts. These protocols can define clear triggers (e.g., rainfall thresholds, river water levels, temperature extremes) and corresponding early actions such as evacuation planning, pre-positioning of relief materials, dissemination of risk communication messages, and protection of critical infrastructure and livelihoods. By responding to these triggers, municipalities can reduce disaster impacts before they escalate into emergencies.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, even in a year when large-scale monsoon disasters may be less likely, the emphasis must remain on readiness, early action and resilience-building. Leveraging early warning systems and operationalizing the National Anticipatory Action Framework ensures that Nepal moves toward a more forward-looking disaster risk management approach, where preparedness is not only maintained but also made more effective and responsive.<\/p>\n

(Adhikari is an Anticipatory Coordinator at Nepal Red Cross Society)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

-Pramod Adhikari Previous year, I visited Phalelung Rural Municipality of Panchthar district in order to provide an orientation on Anticipatory Action (AA) to the local community influencers. Leaders from various faiths- priests, monks, pastors and gurus- were picked as influencers so that they could convince people better to be mobilized during disaster management. The participants […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48325,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48321"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48321"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48321\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48327,"href":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48321\/revisions\/48327"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nepalsamaj.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}