Reuters: Saudi Arabia’s oil officials are working on internal projections that show crude prices could surge past $180 per barrel if the ongoing Iran conflict and related supply disruptions continue until late April, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.
The projection is being treated as a base-case scenario by several officials in the Gulf’s largest oil producer, reflecting growing concern that the current energy shock may not be short-lived.
The price outlook is being shaped by a series of attacks on energy infrastructure across the region.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran retaliated after an Israeli strike on its South Pars gas field by targeting Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy hub and other Gulf infrastructure, including Saudi facilities at Yanbu.
The Yanbu terminal is significant as it connects to a pipeline designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply flows.
Disruptions in and around the Strait have tightened supply flows and raised concerns over sustained availability of crude in global markets. Oil prices have already surged in response to the conflict.
The Wall Street Journal reported that crude has risen about 50% since late February, when tensions escalated. Brent crude has traded around $115–$120 per barrel, while regional benchmarks such as Oman crude have spiked significantly higher.
The report notes that markets are increasingly treating the disruption as prolonged rather than temporary.
