-Zhao Ziwen
Regional instability, political upheaval test China’s Belt and Road Initiative, casting uncertainty over key infrastructure projects
China is closely monitoring social unrest in Nepal, a strategic partner and key point in Beijing’s global infrastructure and investment initiative, following the resignation of prime minister K.P. Sharma Oli.
Observers warned that Beijing should be prepared for further instability in the region, citing weak governance and potential external influence in political transitions.
The unrest was initially triggered by a social media ban last week, and soon grew into a wider anti-corruption movement aimed at the country’s decade-long governing establishment on Monday.
Just days earlier, Oli had made a high-profile trip to China, holding talks with President Xi Jinping and attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit before watching the Victory Day military parade in Beijing.
“Oli has relatively close relations with China, so I believe this will certainly attract greater attention from China,” said Lin Minwang, professor and vice dean at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Wednesday afternoon that China hoped all sectors in Nepal could “properly handle domestic issues and restore social order and national stability as soon as possible”.
“China always hopes that neighbouring countries will maintain stability and development, which serves the interests of regional countries and meets the expectations of the international community.”
Nepal joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2017 but progress has been slow. The key project, the proposed Rasuwagadhi-Kathmandu Rail Line connecting Jilong in southern Tibet with Kathmandu, remains in preliminary planning.
A wave of social unrest also gripped Indonesia late last month, forcing President Prabowo Subianto to cancel his SCO plans. Prabowo made a one-day trip to Beijing for the same military parade, when Xi reaffirmed support for Jakarta’s governance.
Similar social unrest played out in Bangladesh last year, forcing prime minister Sheikh Hasina to resign and flee the country by helicopter. In Sri Lanka, protesters stormed the president’s residence, prompting former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country.
Liu Zongyi, a senior fellow and director of the Centre for South Asia Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said the unrest could affect the belt and road plan but activity may pick up later.
“During periods of turmoil, there will certainly be an impact on the Belt and Road Initiative. However, after the turmoil, if their development and prosperity issues cannot be resolved, only China’s Belt and Road Initiative can help them address problems such as having enough to eat and living better lives,” Liu said.
It remained unclear whether there was an “unknown power” behind the social unrest, but it was ultimately those Asian countries that provided the “soil” for unrest, he said.
Liu said that poor governance, economic problems and “international border background” – a reference to the US trade war – had contributed to the turmoil.
Zhang Jiadong, director of the South Asian Studies Centre at Fudan University, said the social unrest in Nepal was part of the new internal order in South Asia, where “public awakening, economic difficulties and the rise of social media have collectively driven political changes in the region”, adding that he urged Beijing to “pay attention”.
Lin, from Fudan University, said South Asian governments remained fragile as civil society was relatively developed, but state institutions were still weak, leaving them prone to frequent political turmoil.
While the protests have targeted the countries’ establishments, they have revealed little direct hostility towards Beijing, which has actively engaged with each new government after political changes.
For instance, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the Sri Lankan president, was elected last year as a left-leaning anti-establishment figure following the Sri Lankan protests. He has maintained close relations with Beijing, like the previous leaders. China has also welcomed his government.
In late March, the head of the interim government of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, travelled to China for a four-day official visit. During his trip, he met with Xi to discuss strategic bilateral issues, trade and investment.
Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said China’s Great Firewall, powerful online censorship and tightly controlled propaganda platforms shield Beijing from the repercussions of the large-scale protests and regime changes in its neighbours, but there were still lessons for China’s leadership.
“Beijing, just like any other government in the world, will need to have regular reality checks on the ground, find ways to meet people’s expectations and defuse public dissatisfaction as early as possible and fight corruption as harshly as possible. It can just look around to see what will happen if you fail to address people’s needs.”
Amit Ranjan, a research fellow with the National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies, suggested that Beijing actively engage with new governments.
“Whether it’s China or other nations, we must understand that we have to deal with the new leaders. These new leaders may not be as sincere and approachable as their predecessors, but we have no other choice,” he said.
“They are there to build their state. They are part of the state, so [we] have to be with those leaders. We don’t have other options.”
From: scmp.com
